NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

 Now things get interesting. This holiday week's roster of games is full of matches with, as they say, "playoff implications." Perfect fare to complement the Thanksgiving table.

Thursday

MIA at GB: Everyone knows that the Dolphins never win in the cold. Game time temperature at Lambeau: low 20s, chance of flurries. And the Packers can run the rock.

Sunday

1 pm

LAC at ATL: The Falcons will likely need a win to keep the division lead. 

PIT at CIN: Likely an elimination game for the Bengals.

4 pm

LAR at NO: Likely an elimination game for Saints

8:20 pm

SF at BUF: Likely an elimination game for 49ers.

NFL Week 12 ATS Picks

No episode is more instructive of the NFL's historical approach to gambling than the Bachelors III affair, which featured none other than Joe Namath.

Another tale off the top of my head 

The year was 1969, and Namath was arguably the most famous athlete in America. Fresh off piloting his New York Jets to a stunning upset win over the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III, Broadway Joe had the world at his feet. He had talent, charisma, and star power, and he liked to have a good time.

Namath's New York base of operations was his Upper East Side apartment, replete with llama skin carpeting. But he also needed a place to hang, so along with a couple of friends, he opened a restaurant and bar called Bachelors III. It was the heyday of the singles bar in Manhattan and elsewhere, and Joe's joint fit right in.

All was going swimmingly, until the NFL's security apparatus caught wind of Namath's venture. Soon the league honchos, up to and including Commissioner Alvin "Pete" Rozelle, were none too happy with Namath. The league had Namath's "associates," his friends and partners in the bar, pegged as known gamblers. Rozelle and and the rest of the league braintrust could not abide the newly merged league's brightest star consorting with such scoundrels. The NFL threatened to suspend Namath indefinitely until he divested his hospitality side hustle. Namath protested his innocence, even retired briefly before the 1969 season, but eventually capitulated and returned to the NFL.

It is interesting to note that Namath was not accused of gambling, his partners had no criminal record, and there was no evidence of gambling in Bachelor's III. But the NFL wanted to ensure that the public would not make any such assumption, and were willing to come down on their biggest star to make that point. Given that Namath was a bit of an anti-hero, countercultural icon type, bringing him to heel also represented a win for the establishment. Today we have Draft Kings...

Now the picks, generated via the proprietary Spreadbuster algorithm:

Three-Star Picks 

GB (2) vs. SF

NYG (+6) vs. TB

PIT (3.5) at CLE

HOU (7.5) vs. TEN

Last week: 4-0. Overall: 23-14. 

Two-Star Picks 

LAC (+3) vs. BAL 

WAS (10) vs. DAL

SEA (+1) vs. AZ

IND (+7) vs. DET

Last week: 2-3. Overall: 19-28. 

One-Star Picks 

These games are anyone's guess. 

NE (+7) at MIA 

MIN (3.5) at CHI 

DEN (6) at LV 

LAR (+3) vs. PHI 

KC (10.5) at CAR 

Last week: 2-3. Overall: 30-32-1. 

Total - Last week: 8-6. Overall: 73-75-1.

For more on Joe and Bachelors III

https://hipquotient.com/broadway-joe-namath-the-first-sports-rock-star/

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2014/6/6/5787144/the-saga-of-bachelors-iii

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

The big news this week was BUF taking out KC to end the Chiefs' nearly year-long win streak. However, neither that game, nor DET blowing out JAX, nor PIT grinding down BAL, caused a ripple in the Power Rankings. The Rankings are based on what team is more likely to win theoretical, single-game, neutral-site matchup at this point in time. Given those parameters, the Chiefs remain the team to beat, due to their big-game experience, possession of the best defense among the upper-echelon teams, and Hall of Fame QB. The Bills beating KC is nothing that has not happened before, and it will take more than that to shake the top of the Rankings in any meaningful way.

With seven weeks left in the season, five teams (KC, DET, BUF, PHI, PIT) look to have their playoff tickets punched, while another nine (NE, CAR, TEN, DAL, NYJ, NYG, CLE, LV, JAX) are playing out the string.

That means 18 teams - and that's being generous - are competing for nine playoff spots. Let's break it down:

AFC

In at the moment 

HOU (leads South, seven wins); BAL (wild card, seven wins); LAC (wild card, seven wins); DEN (wild card, six wins).

Looking in

IND (5-6): Needs to finish with a minimum of four wins out of last six games. Very possible with a Week 15 win vs. DEN. 

MIA (4-6): Needs five out of seven. Could be tough.

CIN (4-7): Needs to run the table; probably not happening with two vs. PIT.

NFC

In at the moment

ATL (leads South, six wins); AZ (leads West, six wins); MIN (wild card, eight wins); GB (wild card, seven wins); WAS (wild card, seven wins).

Looking in

LAR: Needs five, maybe four, out of seven. Brutal schedule, but nine wins could take the West.

SEA: Needs five, maybe four, out of seven. Schedule also brutal, could take control by sweeping AZ in next three weeks.

SF: Needs five, maybe four, out of seven. Beat up, brutal schedule, dangerous if healthy.

TB: Six of seven vs. easy schedule puts Bucs in wild card mix. Swept vs. ATL means division is probably out of reach.

NO: Needs to run the table vs. decent schedule. Probably not happening.

CHI: Needs to run the table vs. brutal schedule. Not happening.

NFL Week 11 ATS Picks

From the NFL Gambling is Big Business Dept. An interesting article in Friday's Wall Street Journal (gift link below):

This Year’s Big NFL Winners: Fans, Not Sportsbooks

Winning bets on favorite NFL teams are expected to cost DraftKings and FanDuel hundreds of millions in expected revenue.

What follows is several paragraphs of whining from the sports books, which are all oh-so-sad that they're not pocketing as much as usual. To wit:

 

This is a real humanitarian tragedy unfolding. ;) More to come...

Now the picks, generated via the proprietary Spreadbuster algorithm:

Three-Star Picks 

NO (1) vs. CLE: Playoff run begins. 
PIT (+3) vs. BAL: Take the points. 
LAC (1.5) vs. CIN: Nice SNF matchup. 

IND (+4) at NYJ: Playoff-type game.

Last week: 3-1. Overall: 19-14. 

Two-Star Picks 

DAL (+7.5) vs. HOU: Back door open.

SF (6.5) vs. SEA: Must-win for Seahawks.
NE (+5) vs. LAR: Nice Maye day.
DET (14) vs. JAX: Covering big number.
MIA (7) vs. LV: Win streak starts. 

Last week: 2-3. Overall: 17-25. 

One-Star Picks 

These games are anyone's guess. 

CHI (+5) vs. GB: Bears still fighting.
PHI (4) vs. WAS: Eagles take control.
TEN (+6) vs. MIN: Titans stay close.
ATL (+2.5) at DEN: Falcons mile high.
KC (+2.5) at BUF: Game of the week.

Last week: 2-3. Overall: 28-29-1. 

Total - Last week: 7-7. Overall: 65-69-1.

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

It's a transitional time of the year, what with the leaves off the trees, and thoughts turning to year-end holiday celebrations and, for some, speculation on possible NFL playoff scenarios.

Once again, there was not much movement at the top of the NFL ranks. The lack of upsets has reverberated all the way to Wall Street - more on that in an upcoming post - and resulted in a leader board that on the surface looks almost fully baked.

A total of 14 teams - seven from each conference - out of 32 in the league qualify for the playoffs.  If the playoffs were today, SF, currently 10th in the Spreadbuster Power Rankings, would be out. In the AFC, DEN is the seventh seed.

Beyond that, numbers 24-32 look to be fork tender, even with the expanded, 17-game schedule. But with the season barely half over, there is still plenty of time for a middle-of-pack team, including 3-6 MIA and 3-7 NO, to make a run.

Of course, last week's candidate for such a move, NYJ, unraveled in rather dismal fashion vs. AZ. But there is, as they say - well, as Spreadbuster says - a lotta game left. So look for a lot of jockeying for position to secure one or two playoff spots during the next eight weeks.

Not his year

Team	Rank	Change	Why	Record	This Week
KC	1	0	Just squeaking by	9-0	at BUF (+2.5)
DET	2	0	Also squeaking by	8-1	JAX (14)
BUF	3	0	Rounding into form	8-2	KC (2.5)
PHI	4	0	PHI does DAL	7-2	WAS (4)
PIT	5	1	Russ is back	7-2	BAL (+3)
BAL	6	-1	Also squeaking by	7-3	at PIT (3)
MIN	7	1	Staying on pace	7-2	at TEN (6)
WAS	8	-1	Not there yet	7-3	at PHI (+4)
GB	9	0	Bye	6-3	at CHI (5)
SF	10	1	Also squeaking by	5-4	SEA (6.5)
AZ	11	1	Another statement win	6-4	Bye
LAC	12	1	Got it done	6-3	CIN (1.5)
ATL	13	-3	Bad division loss	6-4	at DEN (+2.5)
HOU	14	2	Not primetime ready	6-3	at DAL (7.5)
DEN	15	3	Oh so close	5-5	ATL (2.5)
LAR	16	-1	Bad bad loss	4-5	at NE (5)
CIN	17	0	Still a chance	4-6	at LAC (+1.5)
TB	18	-4	Needed that game	4-6	Bye
MIA	19	7	Maybe a chance	3-6	LV (7)
IND	20	0	Flacco sits down	4-6	at NYJ (+4)
CHI	21	-3	Disintegration in progress	4-5	GB (+5)
SEA	22	-1	Bye	4-5	at SF (+6.5)
NO	23	-4	Brought Falcons down	3-7	CLE (+1)
NE	24	-3	Not much happening	3-7	LAR (+5)
CAR	25	0	Panthers uber alles	3-7	Bye
TEN	26	0	Nowhere to go	2-7	MIN (+6)
DAL	27	-3	Going down, Mr Jones	3-6	HOU (+7.5)
JAX	28	-3	Time to tank	2-8	at DET (+14)
NYJ	29	-14	See ya later	3-7	IND (4)
NYG	30	-3	No words explain	2-7	Bye
CLE	31	-7	Bye	2-7	at NO (1)
LV	32	-2	Bye	2-7	at MIA (+7)

NFL Week 10 ATS Picks

On the journey from a league with a portion of its founders having at least one foot in the gaming industry, to the "No Fun League" of the 90s and 2000s, to today's Draft Kings-crazed juggernaut, the NFL periodically would address the subject of gambling on the part of its employees, primarily the players. The message: F around with just about any sort of gambling, and find out what the consequences will be, and know it won't be great.

A couple of the highest-profile victims of this policy were Paul Hornung and Alex Karras. Hornung was the "Golden Boy," Heisman winner at Notre Dame, All-Pro halfback and kicker for most of the classic Vince Lombardi-led Green Bay Packers teams of the 1960s. In 1960, Hornung scored 176 points in a single 12-game season, a record which stood until 2006.

Less glamorous, but almost as accomplished, Karras was an All-Pro defensive tackle for Detroit Lions. Both players were found to have gambled and associated with gamblers, and were suspended for the entire 1963 season. 

Both players returned to the league and eventually became members of the Hall of Fame. They also had long half-lives in the post-pro sports entertainment stratosphere, announcing, commercials, acting. Still, they did the "crime" and they did the time, a fate that might be best expressed by Karras's best-known character, post-football:

Now the picks, generated via the proprietary Spreadbuster algorithm:

Three-Star Picks 

CAR (+6.5) vs. NYG: Germany is psyched. 
LAR (1) vs. MIA: Resurgence will continue. 
AZ (pick) vs. NYJ: Unusual desert matchup. 
TB (+6) vs. SF: Must-win for Bucs. 

Last week: 1-3. Overall: 16-13. 

Two-Star Picks 

KC (8) vs. DEN: Chiefs run away.

BAL (6) vs. CIN: Too much offense.

MIN (4.5) at JAX: Jags on empty.

ATL (3.5) at NO: Playoff drive continues.

LAC (7.5) vs. TEN: Double LA dose. 

Last week: 3-2. Overall: 15-22. 

One-Star Picks 

These games are anyone's guess. 

BUF (4) at IND: Bills can coast.

DET (3.5) at HOU: Lions bruise Texans.

PIT (+3) at WAS: Best weekly matchup.

DAL (+7) vs. PHI: Why not now?

CHI (6.5) vs. NE: Bears stick around.

Last week: 3-3. Overall: 26-26-1. 

Total - Last week: 7-8. Overall: 58-62-1.

Paul Hornung

Alex Karras

NFL Week Nine Power Rankings

Movement in the rankings this week shows continued stratification between the haves and the have nots. Through 8-ish weeks with byes and such, there are seven teams with two losses or fewer, and nine teams with two wins. That's a pretty stark breakdown.

Such a split leaves room for a team or three from that slim middle of the pack to make a push to the playoffs. Given a big win over HOU, the New York Jets of all teams may be one poised for the unlikeliest of breakouts. Yes, the Texans are not great and have WR problems. Yes, the Texans may have been phoning in a game they didn't have to have. Yes, the Jets have looked awful as recently as the first half of the Texans game. But the Jets were almost flawless in the second half, showing flashes of what their braintrust expected when they sprung for Aaron Rodgers.

So, even at 3-6, the Jets are in position to make a move going into Arizona to face the Cardinals. The Cardinals are also one of those middle-of-the-pack teams, albeit one that has been much more consistent than the Jets. And this is the kind of game where the Jets usually step on the rake. But it's the kind of game where the Cardinals step on the rake as well. So, we'll see. Who knows - maybe Rodgers will get elected President in 2026...

Team	Rank	Change	Why	Record	This Week
KC	1	0	Chiefs consistency continues	8-0	DEN (8)
DET	2	0	Resplendent in rain	7-1	at HOU (+3.5)
BUF	3	0	AFC East won	7-2	at IND (4)
PHI	4	2	Good job NYG	6-2	at DAL (7)
BAL	5	2	Administered full beatdown	6-3	CIN (6)
PIT	6	-1	Bye	6-2	at WAS (+3)
WAS	7	1	Finishes season sweep	7-2	PIT (3)
MIN	8	3	Much needed win	6-2	at JAX (4.5)
GB	9	-5	Not top tier	6-3	Bye
ATL	10	2	May go higher	6-3	at NO (3.5)
SF	11	-1	Bye	4-4	at TB (6)
AZ	12	2	Win makes statement	5-4	NYJ ()
LAC	13	2	Got it done	5-3	TEN (7.5)
LAR	14	4	Back in mix	4-4	MIA (1)
NYJ	15	13	Look who's here	3-6	at AZ ()
HOU	16	-7	Jets exposed weaknesses	6-3	DET (+3.5)
CIN	17	5	Not done yet	4-5	at BAL (+6)
DEN	18	-5	Not primetime ready	5-4	at KC (+8)
TB	19	-4	Poor game management	4-5	SF (+6)
IND	20	-4	Flacco has ceiling	4-5	BUF (+4)
CHI	21	-3	Does not execute	4-4	NE (6.5)
SEA	22	-1	Things tightening up	4-5	Bye
DAL	23	-3	Dak is done	3-5	PHI (+7)
CAR	24	6	No high pick	2-7	NYG (+6.5)
TEN	25	6	Scores meaningless win	2-6	at LAC (+7.5)
MIA	26	2	All over now	2-6	at LAR (+1)
NO	27	-4	Fingerpointing starts now	2-7	ATL (+3.5)
NE	28	-3	Not much happening	2-7	at CHI (+6.5)
JAX	29	-3	Trev on shelf	2-7	MIN (+4.5)
NYG	30	-3	Hallo Deustchland	2-7	at CAR (6.5)
CLE	31	-7	Back to disarray	2-7	Bye
LV	32	-2	Also in disarray	2-7	Bye