NFL Week Four ATS Picks

As dopey as it sounds, Mike Francesa is right when he says the NFL season moves quickly. One minute you're watching the opener in sweltering heat, the next the leaves are falling and it's Week 4.

My thoughts of gambling and gamblers turned this week to arguably the greatest prognosticator of all times, one Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal. Again, without dipping into the Wikipedia entry, Frank's skill and fame transcended the worlds of sports, gambling, and organized crime, to be commemorated in one of the best movies ever.

Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal: Hot under the collar at some sort of hearing?

A decent high school athlete in his home town of Cleveland, Lefty got into the gaming business working for the wire services which carried primarily horse racing results to mostly illegal bookmaking establishments throughout the United States. A mathematical whiz, Lefty's real genius lay in other areas, primarily in creating the spreads for betting on basketball and, most importantly, football.

Lefty's prowess at establishing and moving lines that kept the money flowing on both sides of a wager was a unique and highly valuable skill. Before long, he found himself in Las Vegas, where he was responsible for setting the line on NFL games. Lefty's lines came out on Tuesday morning, and all the other books, legal and illegal, followed suit.

Being the point man for sports gambling was often problematic for Lefty. He tried to go more legit, doing a local late-night talk show in Vegas. At the same time, he married a former show girl, whose excesses with drugs, spending, an old boyfriend, and other assorted vices made her locally notorious.

The delicate balancing act between legalized sports betting in the casinos and ties to organized crime in the form of Lefty's associate Anthony Spilotro came crashing down in the 1980s. Lefty had a few chats with the Feds, just missed getting blown up in his car, but eventually managed a retreat to California. He remarried, and raised a daughter who became an Olympic-level swimmer, with Dad keeping an eye on the stopwatch.

If all this sounds vaguely familiar, it's because Lefty was the subject of Casino by Nick Pileggi, which eventually became the basis of Casino, the film by Martin Scorsese. In the movie, Lefty becomes Ace Rothstein, played by Robert DeNiro, but otherwise all the crazy goings-on in that movie are basically a documentary. Wild...

On to the picks - generated via the proprietary Spreadbuster algorithm:

Three-Star Picks

CAR (+4) vs. CIN: Andy gets a shot at his old homies.

HOU (6.5) vs. JAX: Statement game for someone.

NYG (+5) vs. DAL: Comfortable cushion for the Jints.

MIA (1) vs. TEN: Keeping hope alive.

Last week: 2-2. Overall: 3-5

Two-Star Picks

NO (+2.5) at ATL: Another reality check for the Saints.

PIT (2) at IND: Steelers non-surprisingly surprising.

NYJ (7.5) vs. DEN: Rested Jets spread their wings.

MIN (+2.5) at GB: Marquee matchup at Lambeau.

Last week: 2-2. Overall: 5-3

One-Star Picks

These games are anyone's guess.

NE (+10) at SF: Will double digits be enough?

PHI (2) at TB: Should be a good one.

WAS (+3.5) at AZ: A high scoring affair.

LV (2) vs. CLE: Early season irrelevance.

DET (3.5) vs. SEA: Time for Lions to step up.

LAR (+3) at CHI: Rams hanging in.

BUF (2.5) at BAL: Hard core ball in BAL.

LAC (7.5) vs. KC: If Herbert is available.

Last week: 2-5. Overall: 6-8-1

Total. Last week: 6-9. Overall 14-16-1

NFL Week Three Power Rankings

Controlled Chaos Supports NFL Plot Line

Week 3 was another seemingly wild week. 

No, not that kind of wild weekend. This kind, if you're one of the many who play survivor pools:

Week One it was New England doing the heavy lifting, followed by the Raiders in Week Two, and the hot mess outline above this week (I imagine DEN over TB caused most of the pain, though).

This steady stream of early, high-profile, pool-draining upsets has been flowing for the past several years. In addition to wreaking havoc on the aforementioned survivor pools, this trend also plays into the NFL "any given Sunday" ethos.

The reality is that the early season drama is probably an unforeseen yet welcomed byproduct of the league's decisions to expand the regular season, shorten training camp, and add games on additional nights of the week. Back when players made roughly an inflation-adjusted $100K or so for the season, the NFL was almost a part-time job. Players worked in the off season. Training camp started in July and lasted two months, so guys could get themselves into shape. There were six - six! - preseason games and 14 regular season games.

Instant Replay, a diary of the Green Bay Packers 1967 Super Bowl season by Jerry Kramer, will tell
you everything you need to know about preseason, and the NFL in general, back in the day. Kramer, an All Pro and future Hall of Fame guard, made an inflation-adjusted $283,000 for the season.

Gradually, and logically - nobody liked preseason games, then and now - the season went to 16 regular and 4 preseason games, then 16 and 3, and the current 17 and 3. More regular season games means more money. It also means the best teams begin the season with a decided advantage, as, barring injury, they will likely have the most continuity with regards to personnel and system, and need less time to prepare. 

Beneath those top five or six teams, there will be a weird churn as newly structured teams get sorted out. The churn results in the seemingly strange upsets to begin the season. Meanwhile, the NFL, the foremost purveyor of reality TV (93 of the top 100 live TV shows in 2023 were NFL football; six of the remaining seven were college games) benefits from a plethora of new plot lines. And yours truly had BAL in Week 2 and LV in Week 3...

Power Rankings

That early season churn did impact the rankings, and raise some questions: 

• Is MIN for real? 
• What's up with DAL? 
• Can Robert and Aaron patch things up in NYJ land?

Team	Change	Why	This Week
KC	0	Road grinder	at LAC (8)
BUF	0	Convincing win	at BAL (2.5)
PHI	6	Playing some D in NO	at TB (2.5)
DET	2	Righting the ship	SEA (3.5)
MIN	8	Could be for real	at GB (+2.5)
SEA	1	Beats JV squad	at DET (+3.5)
PIT	2	A lot with not much	at IND (2)
BAL	6	Holds on in DAL	BUF (+2.5)
NYJ	8	Aaron show in full swing	DEN (7.5)
GB	6	Pack can run	MIN (2.5)
NO	-7	Exposed; a big one slips away	at ATL (+1.5)
TB	-9	Exposed	PHI (+1)
HOU	-1	Preseason darling exposed	JAX (7)
LAC	-8	QB trouble	KC (+8)
LAR	10	Battling back	at CHI (2.5)
SF	-11	Losing 3 All Pros *is* bad	NE (10)
ATL	0	Tough loss	NO (1.5)
WAS	12	2-1 *is* 2-1	at AZ (+3.5)
DAL	-9	Trouble in Jersey?	at NYG (5.5)
AZ	1	Next week tells the tale	WAS (3.5)
IND	6	Top of the bottom of the barrel	PIT (+2)
DEN	7	Big win in TB	at NYJ (+7.5)
CAR	10	What a diff a QB makes	CIN (+4.5)
MIA	-6	Going down until QB shows up	TEN (1)
LV	-6	Mixed signals from Raiderland	CLE (1)
CHI	-2	No offense to speak of	LAR (+2.5)
NE	-8	Reverting to expected form	at SF (+10)
NYG	3	Improvement shown	DAL (+5.5)
CIN	-7	Hole may be too deep	at CAR (4.5)
CLE	-7	Home NYG loss: not good	at LV (+5)
JAX	-4	Bombarded in BUF	at HOU (+7)
TEN	-3	Mayo Clinic QB a problem	at MIA (+1)

NFL Week Three ATS Picks

Thinking about gambling gets me thinking about gamblers. The gambler who dominated the public consciousness of my younger years was Jimmy Snyder, better known as Jimmy the Greek.

Jimmy was a household name in a way that would be unthinkable today. How he got to that point was a bit of a mystery, but suffice to say anytime anyone back in the day made a prediction about anything, you could respond "Who do you think you are, Jimmy the Greek?" and people would get the reference.

Recently, I found out that Jimmy was born in the gambling hotbed (yes, really) of Steubenville, Ohio, was a contemporary of Dean Martin, and made a large chunk of his fortune picking Truman over Dewey in the 1948 Presidential election.

In 1974, CBS introduced the first large-scale NFL pregame show, "The NFL Today." Jimmy joined Brett Musburger, Phyllis George and Irv Cross on the studio team. The show was a huge hit, and Jimmy as the in-house tout and betting expert. Never mind that any discussion of point spreads was forbidden, and Jimmy's straight-up picks were less than stellar, he was the face of NFL betting.

The NFL Today and Jimmy the Greek settled in as the leading pregame show and part of the NFL firmament. This continued on until the late 1980s, when a local TV crew interviewed Jimmy at a luncheon. Jimmy, looking to be a couple of cocktails in, provided some jaw-droppingly racist commentary. The interview quickly went was would currently be called viral, and that was the end of Jimmy the Greek on TV.

On to the picks - generated via the proprietary Spreadbuster algorithm:

Three-Star Picks:

BUF (-5) vs. JAX: Tough spot for the Jags.

TB (-6.5) vs. DEN: Don't see how the Broncos keep pace.

DAL (+1) vs. BAL: Cows as dogs here is kinda crazy.

GB (+2) at TEN: Pack will have to run through a packed box.

Last week: 1-3

Two-Star Picks:

SEA (-4) vs. MIA: Dolphins still processing Tua injury.

LV (-5) vs. CAR: Not sure Andy is the answer.

MIN (+2) vs. HOU: Not sold on the Texans.

AZ (-3) vs. DET: Marv Jr. looks to be a difference maker.

Last week: 3-1

One-Star Picks

These games are anyone's guess. 

NO (-2.5) vs PHI: Statement game for Saints.

CIN (-7.5) vs. WAS: Bengals break the seal.

CLE (-6.5) vs. NYG: Dream matchup.

LAC (+1.5) at PIT: AFC East redux.

KC (-3.5) at ATL: Could be trap for Chiefs

NE (+6) at NYJ: Pats go back door again

IND (-1) vs. CHI: A grinder.

SF (-7) at LAR: Battle of attrition.

NFL Week Two Power Rankings

The final weekend of Summer 2024 was a beauty in New England - perfect for sitting in the house and watching sports. A quick recap before we get to the rankings.

Mets at Phillies: Yes, I still watch baseball. Yes, there's a playoff race going on. Yes, the Mets are in the thick of it. After an 11-run explosion Friday, the Mets' bats ran dry, leading to this slow-motion 2-1 loss Sunday afternoon. Mets may get in, but they haven't shown they can beat the Phillies - or the Brewers, for that matter.

NY Giants at Washington: Offense played better, but front-office blunders of all things led to a lack of an able-bodied placekicker, which led to a particularly weird and ugly 21-18 defeat.

CIN at KC: The Chiefs ground out a 26-25 win that was not particularly compelling despite the score.

CHI at HOU: Dabbled with this one late. Caleb Williams not great for the Bears, the Texans grinding their way to a 19-13 win. Not a HOU believer yet, but they may be on their way to an ugly 13-4 or some such.

ATL at PHI: Dabbled with this one late. Kirk had a v. un-Cousins like final drive to lead the Falcons to a gutty 22-21 win. Saquon Barkley brought a little NYG magic dust to the proceedings, coming up short of the sticks, the goal line, and then dropping a pass that opened the door for ATL. 

The Rankings:

Team	Change	Why	This Week
KC	0	Grinding one out at home	at ATL (3.5)
BUF	2	Did not wilt in heat	JAX (5.5)
TB	5	Looking solid	DEN (7)
NO	10	Carr fire	PHI (1.5)
SF	-3	Trap game?	at LAR (7.5)
LAC	5	Perfect start	at PIT (+2)
SEA	3	Never, ever doubted Geno	MIA (5)
DET	-1	Got paid back for playoff win	at AZ (3)
PHI	-6	Exposed	at NO (+1.5)
DAL	-5	Exposed	BAL (+1)
PIT	1	Tomlin always fields a consistent product	LAC (2)
HOU	3	Still not convinced	at MIN (+2.5)
MIN	3	Possible statement win	HOU (2.5)
BAL	-5	Problems brewing	at DAL (1)
ATL	12	Kirk clutch	KC (+3.5)
GB	3	GB Sweep FTW	at TEN (2.5)
NYJ	6	Aaron on the board	NE (6.5)
MIA	-13	Tua trouble again	at SEA (+5)
LV	10	Big win for the program	CAR (7)
AZ	5	Marvelous Marvin	DET (+3)
NE	-8	Not a lot of talent	at NYJ (+6.5)
CIN	-2	Slow Sept. again	WAS (8)
CLE	1	Not great	NYG (6)
CHI	-7	Classic Bears	at IND (+1.5)
LAR	-7	Too many injuries	SF (7.5)
IND	-5	Issues developing	CHI (1.5)
JAX	-5	Signs of life late	at BUF
DEN	-2	QB trouble	at TB (+7)
TEN	-2	Not much there	GB (+2.5)
WAS	0	In the W column, barely	at CIN (+8)
NYG	1	Another bad regime	at CLE (+6)
CAR	-1	0-∞	at LV (+7)

NFL Week Two ATS Picks

Generated using the proprietary Spreadbuster algorithm:

Three-Star Picks:

PHI (-7.5) vs. ATL: Another Kirk performance like 

Week One will send Arthur Blank to the return desk.

KC (-5) vs. CIN: Chiefs look solid; Bengals look shaky.

NE (+3.5) vs. SEA: East Coast 1pm start traditionally 

a problem for Westerners; we'll see if Pats are for real.

BAL (-9) vs. LV: Same as above; Ravens should be angry.

Two-Star Picks:

TB (+7.5) at DET: The Bucs should keep this one close.

MIN (+6) vs. SF: I don't believe this.

DAL (-6) vs. NO: If the Dallas D is for real.

LAC (-6) at CAR: Another West Coast team coming east, 

but Panthers are bad.

One-Star Picks

These games are anyone's guess. Here's mine:

CHI (+6) at HOU: Not a great SNF.

JAX (-3) vs. CLE: Browns never should've moved Baker.

LAR (-1) at AZ: Should be more weirdness in the desert.

NYJ (-3.5) at TEN: Put up time for Aaron.

WAS (-1) vs. NYG: Giants look very bad.

PIT (-2.5) at DEN: Tomlin over Payton when QBs are issue

IND (-3) at GB: More QB issues.

NFL Week One Power Rankings

 

Team	Why	This Week
KC	Defending their crown	CIN (5)
SF	Looked better than last year	at MIN (6)
PHI	Conquering Brazil in style	ATL (7.5)
BUF	Slow start but fast finish	at MIA (+2.5)
DAL	D for defense	NO (6)
MIA	Another slow start, fast finish	BUF (2.5)
DET	Solid squad	TB (7.5)
TB	Baker can play	at DET (+7.5)
BAL	Just missed OT	LV (9)
SEA	Solid start	at NE (3.5)
LAC	Solid start	at CAR (6)
PIT	Potential QB trouble	at DEN (2.5)
NE	Surprise Surprise Surprise	SEA (+3.5)
NO	Walkover game	at DAL (6)
HOU	Not a believer	CHI (6)
MIN	Lot to prove	SF (+6)
CHI	Not there yet	at HOU (+6)
LAR	Should be higher by year end	LAR (+1)
GB	Less Love will be a problem	IND (+3)
CIN	Very flat start	at KC (+5)
IND	Always a tossup	at GB (3)
JAX	Had it, lost it	CLE (3)
NYJ	Tough opener	at TEN (3.5)
CLE	Not into Camp DeShaun	at JAX (+3)
AZ	Half good	LAR (1)
DEN	QB trouble	PIT (+2.5)
ATL	Weak start from Kirk	at ATL (-7.5)
TEN	Not much there	NYJ (+3.5)
LV	Antonio could be over his head	at BAL (+9)
WAS	Business as usual	NYG (1.5)
CAR	Bombarded	LAC (+6)
NYG	Stinky start	at WAS (+1.5)