Some subtle shifts are taking place at the top of the NFL heap. While KC still stands at the top, the thin ankles of Patrick Mahomes are once again playing a role in a Chiefs' championship run. Injuries have also resulted in a drop for DET. The Lions have lost enough quality starters on both sides of the ball to put their Super Bowl hopes in jeopardy.
Still, the top of the leaderboard does not look radically different than what most were predicting at the beginning of the season, and a Super Bowl featuring some combination of the first four looks to be the most likely scenario. One could imagine GB or maybe a healthy LAR squad making a run from the NFC. Any AFC team getting by the Chiefs and/or the Bills would represent a major upset.
The overall playoff picture is fairly clear with three weeks remaining. In the AFC, there are no 7-7 teams, so there's a two-game gap between the playoff pack and anyone else with a chance.
In: KC, BUF, PIT and HOU.
Almost in: BAL needs a win in any of its last three games, as does DEN. LAC will need two out of three to punch its own ticket.
Needing a lot of help: CIN, IND and MIA will each have to win out, and get some help.
The NFC is a bit cloudier.
In: PHI, DET and MIN.
Almost in: GB needs to win two out of its last three to punch its own ticket. WAS would need to run the table to do the same.
Still undecided: In the South, TB is a game up over at ATL at 8-6, but ATL has the tiebreaker and the easier remaining schedule. The West is tight, with LAR over SEA, both at 8-6, AZ a game behind, and SF still with a chance at 6-8. DAL is also still alive at 6-8.
A preferred Week 18 scenario, albeit a monument to mediocrity, would have the 8-8 Cardinals finishing against the 8-8 9ers, and the Rams facing the Seahawks, both also at 8-8, while the 9-7 Commanders face off against the 8-8 Cows. One can dream...
